Coronavirus: Radical changes are coming in the movement with technology as an ally

What changes might the pandemic's "waters" bring to our travels, in conjunction with technology?

Ρgreat changes on model of movements of people worldwide may be compounded in the coming years by the combination of any persistent Covid-19 pandemic, with the ongoing leaps and bounds of technology, in the middle of the 4th industrial revolution.

Simply put, if the "next day" of the pandemic is the worst case scenario, ie if such global events are installed as a threat and need repeated measures to restrict or control traffic, it is possible that they will change - with the help of technology - even The very means we use for our travels, with the ownership and use of cars in urban environments, will probably be abolished, giving way to utility vehicles (AV), and public transport will take on a different character in the coming decades.

At a time when humanity is living the unprecedented, obviously all this is just a scenario. But scripts help to strategize in unprecedented circumstances. APE-MPE talked about the possible changes with the director of the Research System of Transmission Systems of AUTh, professor Aristotle Naniopoulos and the director of the Transportation Engineering Laboratory of AUTh, assistant professor Ioannis Politis.

Autonomous and self-cleaning "taxis"?

"If the pandemic develops like its counterparts in the past, it will leave behind limited movements in movement. "But if the worst case scenario is confirmed, we will have drastic changes", observes, speaking to APE-MPE, Mr. Naniopoulos.

"The public transportation that are absolutely necessary for environmental, social and economic reasons, can then be considered potentially dangerous, because they gather large numbers of people in a confined and insufficiently ventilated area, with no entrance control to confirm if someone is ill and with a variety of surfaces, which touch the passengers.

It is not excluded then to see autonomous vehicles (without driver) in taxi type services, which will accept one or two passengers and will be self-cleaning, for example, with surfaces with nanomaterial coatings "he explains, pointing out of course that, to do this scenario scenario, complex issues such as security, institutional issues and end-user costs need to be addressed - issues much more complex than the technology itself.

The five senses and human contact

But if things go smoothly, he adds, in addition to a reduction in mobility, because of it turn of many people into telework, the movements as we know them will return, with small differences: "Some movements may be limited, but man also moves for the experience, the acquisition of perception of the world with the five senses. Otherwise it would be enough for us to watch a good documentary with a high definition image to feel that we know a place.

Also, human contact is not a substitute. Online courses, for example, are good, which we have necessarily focused on at the university during this time, but they can not replace live teaching. They will obviously help a lot in continuing education, lifelong learning, at a time when today’s young people may need to change profession or science two or three times, but it is not the same as living teaching, which is why I believe that travel for education will not stop ".

Changes that came to stay?

"The changes that probably came to stay due to the pandemic, as in many cases the teleworking or and distance learning, but also the making purchases through ecommerce instead of visiting physical stores and the remote diagnosis in private clinics"In combination with the progress of technology, which makes all this possible, they will probably cause several differences in our movements", the transport specialist estimates from his side, speaking to APE-MPE Ioannis Politis, Assistant Professor at the Department of Civil Engineering, AUTh.

At the moment, he notes, his baton digital transformation It is held by the state, but logically the private sector will receive it very quickly, creating new data in work, education, private clinics, etc. - and therefore in the reasons why we move.

"The truth is of course that we are living something unprecedented, so everything is scenarios and estimates, but useful for strategy. How the movement model may actually change in the near future due to the coronavirus is very difficult to predict, albeit with relative accuracy, because we do not know how the pandemic itself will develop. If the vaccine is found very quickly, nothing will probably change and we will go back to exactly where we were. "But if such pandemics are installed as a threat, with high mortality rates, they will certainly change a lot," said Mr. Politis.

Fewer passengers, less revenue and a major economic issue for transport infrastructure

In the latter case, changes expected to occur on public transportation And the transportation. As he says today, "public transport providers have not signed a commitment with the state, in relation to the number of people they transport per bus or wagon, if they do not exceed its maximum capacity: if it can accommodate 100 people, they will enter 100. If the problem with Covid-19 persists, however, I consider it very likely that the restriction that states can not carry, for example, more than 50% of the capacity of buses or trains will now be imposed. , so that they do not turn into sanitary bombs. "The changes that such a move will bring are obvious."

However, next to the problem of how public transport operates itself, an issue of an economic nature arises, not insignificant: "Today, many transport infrastructure projects in Greece are done with co-financing, with PPPs (Public-Private Partnerships) or with financing from structural funds and investment banks, such as the European Investment Bank (EIB). These financing mechanisms, however, release funds based on a specific financial framework, related to the revenues collected by project operators (eg, highway managers), from passenger traffic or tolls. So if these revenues are significantly reduced, due to the vertical decline in traffic and transportation, then a serious issue arises, as the financial risk of large transport projects to be done in Greece automatically increases, resulting in financial schemes appearing hesitantly in terms of their participation "says Mr. Politis.

Abolition of car ownership?

However, regardless of the changes that the pandemic may leave behind, hastening some differences in mobility models, the 4th Industrial Revolution is launching rapid changes on its own. Changes accelerated by its progress Artificial Intelligence technology  and Big Data technology, as well as from the emergence of 5G networks and of Internet of Things (IoT).

As Mr. Politis explains, in a few decades from today, car ownership may have been abolished. It has probably given way to a fully automated system, where the movement of driverless public vehicles (AV), buses and bicycles will be centrally controlled and through agreements between states (since vehicles will also travel from state to state).

And where more than technology itself will now "count" issues of security (security in relation to who has access to this system and can affect it, for example, for terrorist purposes) and management (who owns it) ).

Covid-19 will not affect the development of AV,

"I believe that the transition to this model that I have just described will not be affected by the pandemic," said Mr. Politis, adding, however, that the timetable for when what he describes will be done is finally being revised at the very birthplace of the conception. autonomous vehicles, the USA.

"Protagonist in AV were the USA. They brought them autonomous vehicles to the forefront both as an idea and research. And while until recently it was rumored that we could have them in mass production and use within the next decade, last January, I first heard at the Transport Research Board conference in Washington that the pace at which we thought they would evolve "Things will probably be slower. Instead of the decade, 15 or even 20 years now sound like a timetable", concludes Ioannis Politis.

Purchase of many billions of euros

According to Mr. Naniopoulos, however, the existence of autonomous vehicles (AV) level 4 (ie fully automated), for use in taxi services may be a fact earlier, a decade from today, creating a huge market of many billions of euros and making unprofitable possession and use of cars by citizens in urban environments.

"When this happens, it will be a dramatic development, which will create huge opportunities and will mobilize very large investments from countries, organizations, car manufacturers, cybersecurity companies and the creation of Artificial Intelligence systems", points out Aristotelis Naniopoulos.

Greece offers an ideal environment for AV testing

It expresses the assessment that the Greece offers ideal environment for testing autonomous vehicles: "Recently I was talking to a colleague from Coventry (England), where AV tests are performed in a real environment. He told me that there is a great demand for test sites in real environment and that Greece offers ideal conditions for such a thing, because it has a complex traffic environment, with a variety of climatic conditions per season, so it is a very interesting case in terms of data that can to be collected ".

He adds that at a time when measures to restrict traffic due to the pandemic, at a time when the 4th industrial revolution is underway and is constantly shaping new technological capabilities (robots, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, IoT), a new becoming is created, in the context which is expected to have high market mobility worldwide.

"All this new becoming creates not only fears, but also opportunities. And we as Greece can also play a role. To pursue entrepreneurship, creation, production of new products and services at low cost. We have the minds that can produce technology, if we acquire the mentality and stop criminalizing entrepreneurship and profit, we can achieve a lot in this field ", concludes Mr. Naniopoulos.

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